Political News

Polling Suggests Possibility of Hung Parliament

Edited by Joshua Smith - October 8th, 2004

On election eve, Roy Morgan research indicated support for the ALP was at 51%, on a two-party preferred basis, ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition (L-NP - 49%). When electors were surveyed and asked who they were going to vote for, primary support for the L-NP was 45.5%, while primary support for the ALP was 38.5%. Support for the Greens was 9.5%, Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5%, Australian Democrats 1%, and One Nation 1%.

If the Federal election had been held on election eve, the outcome on these figures would have been too close to call — dependent on marginal L-NP seats and with the serious possibility of a “hung” Parliament, according to the final telephone Morgan Poll taken October 7/8.

An analysis of the two-party preferred vote in marginal seats shows the ALP well ahead in the 11 most marginal ALP seats (ALP 61% cf L-NP 39%) and support in the 27 most marginal L-NP seats also favored the ALP (ALP 50.5% cf L-NP 49.5%).

On the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the Federal election on October 9, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 48%. Now 67% of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election on October 9 while 19% think the ALP will win (14% can’t say). This is the highest ‘think will win’ recorded for the L-NP this year.

Gary Morgan of Roy Morgan commented that, "On election eve, with most of the campaigning over, the electorate has settled on a two-party preferred position that puts the ALP ahead of the L-NP.

"The final result — who wins Government — will depend on how the critical individual marginal L-NP seats fall.

"In such a close situation, preferences of the minor parties will be critical, as will the ‘point-of-vote’ material and skills and persuasion of those manning booths in marginal electorates."

Preferences of the Greens (ALP — 94% cf L-NP — 6%), the Australian Democrats (ALP — 55.5% cf L-NP — 44.5%) and Other Parties and Independents (ALP — 53.5% cf L-NP — 46.5%) favored the Opposition, while supporters of One Nation (L-NP — 68% cf ALP — 32%) favored the Coalition.

While more people still believe Mr Howard (54%, down 3% since September 29/30) would make a better Prime Minister than Mr Latham (37%, up 3%), approval of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister dropped 3% to 53% since late September. Approval for the way Mr Latham is handling his job as Opposition Leader was up 3% to 58%.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted by telephone on the evenings of October 7/8, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,311 electors. Electors were asked: “Thinking about the Federal election for the House of Representatives on October 9 (tomorrow) - which Party will receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4% did not name a party.